Its a really handy tool to have but its only available for gold.
10/27/10
Why Is there no market spread for silver on bullionvault.com?
I would really like to know why there isn't a market spread for silver on bullion vault?
Its a really handy tool to have but its only available for gold.
Its a really handy tool to have but its only available for gold.
"I don't know how the Dollar problem will be resolved..."
AS PROFESSOR of investments at the University of Virginia for eight years, the investor, mathematician and former fund manager Michael Berry PhD spent considerable time with some world-renowned geologists working on the Carlin Trend gold deposits.
Now his complimentary Morning Notes, distributed worldwide, provide analyses of emerging geopolitical, technological and economic trends, as well as identifying opportunities for the Discovery Investing strategy he has developed.
Here he tells The Gold Report why he remains bullish on Gold Investing...
The Gold Report: As part of a short-term plan to sell $66 billion in debt, the US Treasury recently auctioned $32 billion of three-year Treasury Notes at an all-time record low rate of 0.57%. Why is this negative for the economy?
Michael Berry: The deficit problem is very significant. Deficit spending is not working. So, ultimately, we have to grow out of this economic malaise, but right now organic growth doesn't look like a plausible solution to the problem. I think the Obama administration has realized this. I'm not sure the Republicans have a better approach. In fact, in a way, I hope they don't win the House back because I'm not sure they have a plausible solution. From an investment perspective, people are seeking assets other than Treasuries in which to invest.
TGR: Fed Chief Ben Bernanke is saying that inflation is too low. It's obvious that he's going to do something. He can print a trillion Dollars via electronic transfer of funds if he wishes. Does that scare you?
Michael Berry: Well, yes, it does in a way that probably is not too traditional. I don't think quantitative easing will have much impact. We're talking about the idea of quantitative easing here, or increasing the money supply and reducing interest rates. But right now we're not seeing either the velocity of money or the multiplier picking up. We're not seeing enough lending. So I don't think the easing, or monetary approach, is an adequate solution to the problem now. I believe most of my colleagues agree at this stage of the game. So the question, the real question, is how do you stimulate demand? The kind of inflation that's being stimulated now is cost-push inflation rather than demand-pull inflation. What Chairman Bernanke really wants and needs is demand-based inflation, but it is not evident in the economy at this time. That's what he really wants.
TGR: Is there a solution to this problem?
Michael Berry: Yes, there is a solution to the problem. The solution is a very painful one but not a terminal one. It is painful because we must reduce our deficits. We have no choice. We may have to cut Social Security, which will be painful for people my age. Obviously, we are certainly going to have to pull back on entitlement spending. Fiscal programs such as government spending are not the solution. The monetarist approach of manipulating the money supply is no longer a solution.
I think it's going to be a matter of cutting entitlements and balancing the budget; but these are all very painful approaches to the problem, and they take time. So there's no immediate solution to this problem. That's why unemployment is stuck at 9.6%. Underemployment is 18.6% and it's not coming down. That's why the Democrats may lose control of one or both of the houses of Congress in this year's elections.
TGR: Recently, the Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit expanded to $46.3 billion in August due largely to our big competitor, China. Imports for the month jumped 2.1%, while exports rose only 0.20%. Is China waging economic warfare against the United States with its pegged currency?
Michael Berry: That's a great question. There is no doubt that fiat currencies and floating exchange rates are manipulated. There is no doubt that China manipulates its currency. There is no doubt that the US is manipulating its currency now by continually depreciating it. But is China waging war? I don't think so. This is a question that President Obama has to answer in the next few days at the G20 meeting because he has to declare that China is or is not a currency manipulator. So it's a very delicate political question. But basically, I do not think China is waging war against us in the sense of the currency system.
Americans have become addicted to Chinese goods, and that's a tough addiction to kick. China is also addicted to exports. I think the war they are waging is a war to sustain their economy, not necessarily to impinge on or damage ours. We do have to remember that they hold several hundred billion Dollars worth of our debt and that tally is growing. So presently we need them and they need us. I don't know how this problem will be resolved. It's interesting; however, if you look at moves in the Chinese currency, you'll see that in the last couple of weeks they have allowed the Yuan to begin to appreciate. Of course, it's not nearly enough to suit Washington, but it means they are listening to us. No, they are not waging a currency war on the US economy. They simply realize that if they allow the Yuan to appreciate to a large degree, it will have dramatic negative impact on the Chinese economy and they're not going to let that happen.
TGR: How undervalued do you believe the Yuan is?
Michael Berry: Relative to the Dollar right now it's probably 30% to 40% undervalued. So it's significantly undervalued. I read recently in The Economist where a Big Mac in Beijing is 40% cheaper in Dollars than a Big Mac here in New York.
TGR: Do you see anything coming out of the G20 meeting [Editor's note: the G20 meeting took place a few days after this interview] in November, specifically regarding the Chinese and their currency?
Michael Berry: No, I really don't. When it was the G5 that ran the world, we had the Plaza Accord in 1985 and the Louvre Accord in 1987. Then the world allowed the US to depreciate its currency and get out of a similar but much smaller bind. That was because the US at the time was the strongest of the five or six strongest countries in the world. Now we have 20 countries, both developed and emerging, trying to agree. They all want either import controls, in the case of the emerging countries, or to have the US Dollar depreciate because it is the reserve currency of the world.
So I don't see how there could be any serious agreement at the G20 meeting later this month. What eventually will happen, I think, is that a completely different currency regime will materialize out of the G20. I don't know whether that will be backed by a commodity basket or gold. Ultimately, this new currency regime will be much less dependent on the Dollar. The best thing that could happen to our Dollar would be that it loses its reserve currency status, and I think it must happen within the next decade.
TGR: I believe six to nine months ago you had an 18- to 24-month target for gold hitting $1500. Is that still your target?
Michael Berry: Yes. I guess I haven't really revised my targets. We got there a lot faster than I thought we would with gold trading at roughly $1338 and silver trading in the $23 to $24 range. I think this is very characteristic of a world concerned with fiat currencies, devaluations and depreciations, and once again it properly identifies gold and silver as real money capable of storing value and assets in which Americans ultimately place their confidence. But I'm not suggesting that they will be used as a currency backing. It's interesting to learn that J.P.Morgan and other banks in New York City are actually rebuilding old vaults to store gold and Silver Bullion because demand for physical metal is so strong. Yes, I could see $2,000 to $2,500 gold, and I could see $30 or $35 silver.
TGR: What's your longer-term upside to gold? Also, what about silver, platinum and uranium?
Michael Berry: I don't do point estimates very well, but it's possible you could see $3,000 gold in the next five years. I think that's very possible. I also believe it's possible that you could see $50 to $75 silver in the next five years. Having said that, I hearken back to October 2002 when we had $5 silver and we were hoping it would rise to $6. Nobody dreamt it could be $24. Similarly with gold when it was trading below $400 in 2004, nobody dreamt that it would be $1300 or $1400. People thought "gold bugs" were fools. No longer. Platinum and palladium are both also industrial in character, and the emerging world is rebuilding. So I think there's upside in both of these metals and of course they're significantly higher. Uranium is going to increase because even though the United States is not building out its nuclear industry quickly, the rest of the world is. So I think we could see $70 or $80 uranium in the next two years quite easily.
TGR: What is "Discovery Investing"? Is it small stocks? Is it a company philosophy?
Michael Berry: Well, let me explain a little bit of the history behind its development. I was a mutual fund manager for Heartland Advisors in the 1990s. As a value investor, I bought stocks that were out of favor, those with low P/E multiples. What I found out was that whether you're investing in growth or value, small or large cap, these disciplines all experience times when they excel in performance and times when they underperform. So, I decided that I would build a fundamentally different investing philosophy that would focus specifically on discovery and would not go out of favor nearly as often as value investing. I carefully designed this strategy over the last decade.
The central thesis is that all great wealth is created through significant discovery. This discovery can be in natural resource exploration and development, it can be in food stocks, or it could be in a cancer cure, for example. If you have one great discovery, and if you have accumulated a diversified portfolio of these discovery opportunities, you're going to do very well over time. In fact, we have done well. We've had some great successes, and we've also had some failures in the Discovery Investing world. But there is much less downside than upside and it's caught on with a lot of people. Overall we've done very, very well at wealth creation. Finally Discovery Investing is, in effect, a socially responsible investing strategy strictly from the perspective that discoveries in health care or natural resources improve the quality of life for our citizens.
TGR: Tell us more about how it works.
Michael Berry: I divided DI companies into three different categories. First, companies who have not yet made a discovery but are in the process of exploration. I call these "Incubator Stocks". I love them. They sell for pennies. They're looking for new gold mines and uranium mines, or a cure for ALS or a new technology. I don't recommend more than a 5% to 10% allocation to the portfolio, but these stocks often add significant performance.
Incubator companies are small and illiquid, and they are very risky. You don't invest unless you're willing to wait a long time and possibly lose your investment, but some of them will graduate into what I call Mature discovery stocks once they have made a discovery.
So the other two categories are Mature discovery stocks and Legacy stocks. People should understand that discoveries happen across the spectrum. For example Boeing used discovery technology to produce the 787. Apple discovered the iPod and the iPhone and created tremendous wealth. They are what I call Legacy stocks because they aren't as risky, and you can hold them for a long time. They've got a lot of resources and reserves. In any of the three areas, you have a different risk/reward ratio.
TGR: This is something of a philosophical question. Would you differentiate the terms 'clean energy' and 'green energy?'
Michael Berry: Well, yes. I have to tell you honestly I don't believe in green energy because if you're building windmills, each windmill needs tons of copper. So for wind energy you've got to mine the copper. Same sort of thing for solar energy. So I've always had a little bit of a problem with the word "green." But certainly there's no doubt that electricity produced from passive systems like windmills and solar panels is cleaner than electricity produced from coal, which gives off all kinds of contaminants, including radioactive contaminants. I would classify nuclear energy as clean in the sense that there are no carbon dioxide emissions. Essentially, there are no contaminants resulting from nuclear energy production. It is true, however, that we must find a cure for our addiction to fossil fuels, but that I am afraid is a few decades away.
TGR: Mike, I have really appreciated the time that you have given us.
Michael Berry: Thank you.
AS PROFESSOR of investments at the University of Virginia for eight years, the investor, mathematician and former fund manager Michael Berry PhD spent considerable time with some world-renowned geologists working on the Carlin Trend gold deposits.
Now his complimentary Morning Notes, distributed worldwide, provide analyses of emerging geopolitical, technological and economic trends, as well as identifying opportunities for the Discovery Investing strategy he has developed.
Here he tells The Gold Report why he remains bullish on Gold Investing...
The Gold Report: As part of a short-term plan to sell $66 billion in debt, the US Treasury recently auctioned $32 billion of three-year Treasury Notes at an all-time record low rate of 0.57%. Why is this negative for the economy?
Michael Berry: The deficit problem is very significant. Deficit spending is not working. So, ultimately, we have to grow out of this economic malaise, but right now organic growth doesn't look like a plausible solution to the problem. I think the Obama administration has realized this. I'm not sure the Republicans have a better approach. In fact, in a way, I hope they don't win the House back because I'm not sure they have a plausible solution. From an investment perspective, people are seeking assets other than Treasuries in which to invest.
TGR: Fed Chief Ben Bernanke is saying that inflation is too low. It's obvious that he's going to do something. He can print a trillion Dollars via electronic transfer of funds if he wishes. Does that scare you?
Michael Berry: Well, yes, it does in a way that probably is not too traditional. I don't think quantitative easing will have much impact. We're talking about the idea of quantitative easing here, or increasing the money supply and reducing interest rates. But right now we're not seeing either the velocity of money or the multiplier picking up. We're not seeing enough lending. So I don't think the easing, or monetary approach, is an adequate solution to the problem now. I believe most of my colleagues agree at this stage of the game. So the question, the real question, is how do you stimulate demand? The kind of inflation that's being stimulated now is cost-push inflation rather than demand-pull inflation. What Chairman Bernanke really wants and needs is demand-based inflation, but it is not evident in the economy at this time. That's what he really wants.
TGR: Is there a solution to this problem?
Michael Berry: Yes, there is a solution to the problem. The solution is a very painful one but not a terminal one. It is painful because we must reduce our deficits. We have no choice. We may have to cut Social Security, which will be painful for people my age. Obviously, we are certainly going to have to pull back on entitlement spending. Fiscal programs such as government spending are not the solution. The monetarist approach of manipulating the money supply is no longer a solution.
I think it's going to be a matter of cutting entitlements and balancing the budget; but these are all very painful approaches to the problem, and they take time. So there's no immediate solution to this problem. That's why unemployment is stuck at 9.6%. Underemployment is 18.6% and it's not coming down. That's why the Democrats may lose control of one or both of the houses of Congress in this year's elections.
TGR: Recently, the Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit expanded to $46.3 billion in August due largely to our big competitor, China. Imports for the month jumped 2.1%, while exports rose only 0.20%. Is China waging economic warfare against the United States with its pegged currency?
Michael Berry: That's a great question. There is no doubt that fiat currencies and floating exchange rates are manipulated. There is no doubt that China manipulates its currency. There is no doubt that the US is manipulating its currency now by continually depreciating it. But is China waging war? I don't think so. This is a question that President Obama has to answer in the next few days at the G20 meeting because he has to declare that China is or is not a currency manipulator. So it's a very delicate political question. But basically, I do not think China is waging war against us in the sense of the currency system.
Americans have become addicted to Chinese goods, and that's a tough addiction to kick. China is also addicted to exports. I think the war they are waging is a war to sustain their economy, not necessarily to impinge on or damage ours. We do have to remember that they hold several hundred billion Dollars worth of our debt and that tally is growing. So presently we need them and they need us. I don't know how this problem will be resolved. It's interesting; however, if you look at moves in the Chinese currency, you'll see that in the last couple of weeks they have allowed the Yuan to begin to appreciate. Of course, it's not nearly enough to suit Washington, but it means they are listening to us. No, they are not waging a currency war on the US economy. They simply realize that if they allow the Yuan to appreciate to a large degree, it will have dramatic negative impact on the Chinese economy and they're not going to let that happen.
TGR: How undervalued do you believe the Yuan is?
Michael Berry: Relative to the Dollar right now it's probably 30% to 40% undervalued. So it's significantly undervalued. I read recently in The Economist where a Big Mac in Beijing is 40% cheaper in Dollars than a Big Mac here in New York.
TGR: Do you see anything coming out of the G20 meeting [Editor's note: the G20 meeting took place a few days after this interview] in November, specifically regarding the Chinese and their currency?
Michael Berry: No, I really don't. When it was the G5 that ran the world, we had the Plaza Accord in 1985 and the Louvre Accord in 1987. Then the world allowed the US to depreciate its currency and get out of a similar but much smaller bind. That was because the US at the time was the strongest of the five or six strongest countries in the world. Now we have 20 countries, both developed and emerging, trying to agree. They all want either import controls, in the case of the emerging countries, or to have the US Dollar depreciate because it is the reserve currency of the world.
So I don't see how there could be any serious agreement at the G20 meeting later this month. What eventually will happen, I think, is that a completely different currency regime will materialize out of the G20. I don't know whether that will be backed by a commodity basket or gold. Ultimately, this new currency regime will be much less dependent on the Dollar. The best thing that could happen to our Dollar would be that it loses its reserve currency status, and I think it must happen within the next decade.
TGR: I believe six to nine months ago you had an 18- to 24-month target for gold hitting $1500. Is that still your target?
Michael Berry: Yes. I guess I haven't really revised my targets. We got there a lot faster than I thought we would with gold trading at roughly $1338 and silver trading in the $23 to $24 range. I think this is very characteristic of a world concerned with fiat currencies, devaluations and depreciations, and once again it properly identifies gold and silver as real money capable of storing value and assets in which Americans ultimately place their confidence. But I'm not suggesting that they will be used as a currency backing. It's interesting to learn that J.P.Morgan and other banks in New York City are actually rebuilding old vaults to store gold and Silver Bullion because demand for physical metal is so strong. Yes, I could see $2,000 to $2,500 gold, and I could see $30 or $35 silver.
TGR: What's your longer-term upside to gold? Also, what about silver, platinum and uranium?
Michael Berry: I don't do point estimates very well, but it's possible you could see $3,000 gold in the next five years. I think that's very possible. I also believe it's possible that you could see $50 to $75 silver in the next five years. Having said that, I hearken back to October 2002 when we had $5 silver and we were hoping it would rise to $6. Nobody dreamt it could be $24. Similarly with gold when it was trading below $400 in 2004, nobody dreamt that it would be $1300 or $1400. People thought "gold bugs" were fools. No longer. Platinum and palladium are both also industrial in character, and the emerging world is rebuilding. So I think there's upside in both of these metals and of course they're significantly higher. Uranium is going to increase because even though the United States is not building out its nuclear industry quickly, the rest of the world is. So I think we could see $70 or $80 uranium in the next two years quite easily.
TGR: What is "Discovery Investing"? Is it small stocks? Is it a company philosophy?
Michael Berry: Well, let me explain a little bit of the history behind its development. I was a mutual fund manager for Heartland Advisors in the 1990s. As a value investor, I bought stocks that were out of favor, those with low P/E multiples. What I found out was that whether you're investing in growth or value, small or large cap, these disciplines all experience times when they excel in performance and times when they underperform. So, I decided that I would build a fundamentally different investing philosophy that would focus specifically on discovery and would not go out of favor nearly as often as value investing. I carefully designed this strategy over the last decade.
The central thesis is that all great wealth is created through significant discovery. This discovery can be in natural resource exploration and development, it can be in food stocks, or it could be in a cancer cure, for example. If you have one great discovery, and if you have accumulated a diversified portfolio of these discovery opportunities, you're going to do very well over time. In fact, we have done well. We've had some great successes, and we've also had some failures in the Discovery Investing world. But there is much less downside than upside and it's caught on with a lot of people. Overall we've done very, very well at wealth creation. Finally Discovery Investing is, in effect, a socially responsible investing strategy strictly from the perspective that discoveries in health care or natural resources improve the quality of life for our citizens.
TGR: Tell us more about how it works.
Michael Berry: I divided DI companies into three different categories. First, companies who have not yet made a discovery but are in the process of exploration. I call these "Incubator Stocks". I love them. They sell for pennies. They're looking for new gold mines and uranium mines, or a cure for ALS or a new technology. I don't recommend more than a 5% to 10% allocation to the portfolio, but these stocks often add significant performance.
Incubator companies are small and illiquid, and they are very risky. You don't invest unless you're willing to wait a long time and possibly lose your investment, but some of them will graduate into what I call Mature discovery stocks once they have made a discovery.
So the other two categories are Mature discovery stocks and Legacy stocks. People should understand that discoveries happen across the spectrum. For example Boeing used discovery technology to produce the 787. Apple discovered the iPod and the iPhone and created tremendous wealth. They are what I call Legacy stocks because they aren't as risky, and you can hold them for a long time. They've got a lot of resources and reserves. In any of the three areas, you have a different risk/reward ratio.
TGR: This is something of a philosophical question. Would you differentiate the terms 'clean energy' and 'green energy?'
Michael Berry: Well, yes. I have to tell you honestly I don't believe in green energy because if you're building windmills, each windmill needs tons of copper. So for wind energy you've got to mine the copper. Same sort of thing for solar energy. So I've always had a little bit of a problem with the word "green." But certainly there's no doubt that electricity produced from passive systems like windmills and solar panels is cleaner than electricity produced from coal, which gives off all kinds of contaminants, including radioactive contaminants. I would classify nuclear energy as clean in the sense that there are no carbon dioxide emissions. Essentially, there are no contaminants resulting from nuclear energy production. It is true, however, that we must find a cure for our addiction to fossil fuels, but that I am afraid is a few decades away.
TGR: Mike, I have really appreciated the time that you have given us.
Michael Berry: Thank you.
11/29/09
How to beat the bullionvault.com bots
Beating the robots
------------------
As you'll have worked out BullionVault bots spend all day
posting gold prices on the order board.
Here's a simple strategy you might use to gain a small advantage over
them.
A bot usually makes a price which is more competitive in smaller
quantities. For example:
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
| $USD Zurich | $13,615 | $13,620 | $13,630 ||| $13,655 | $13,665 | $13,670 |
| | 7kg | 2kg | 0.75kg ||| 0.75kg | 2kg | 7kg |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
You may be able to persuade it to sell you more than the advertised
0.75kg at that best price of $13,655. So if you want more than is
immediately available you could try just buying what's available at
the best price, and seeing what happens.
There's a good chance the bot will decide that the old price is still
valid, and come back offering more gold at the same price shortly
after.
Why is this? Why does the bot not just offer more in the first
place? Well, it's because the bots are programmed to realise that
they may not have the best information. There's a good chance that
you know something they don't. So after each sale the bot waits a
while, and then rechecks all its sources of gold prices.
If everything checks out it will probably post the same price again.
So the reason you get a better deal buying gradually in this way is
because it gives the bot the extra chance to check it's not
accidentally selling gold too cheap. BullionVault wants to be
incredibly good value, but not stupid!
Of course it's not a guaranteed strategy. If the price is on the move
the next price posted could be quite a bit higher, so you need to
choose your moment, but this is just one of a whole range of
strategies which you can use on BullionVault to improve the terms of
your trade.
If you'd like to know how to squeeze inside the price and buy even
cheaper why not go to BullionVault's help system and read about
beating the best buying price in the 'how to do it' section.
There's a link to the help system below.
------------------
As you'll have worked out BullionVault bots spend all day
posting gold prices on the order board.
Here's a simple strategy you might use to gain a small advantage over
them.
A bot usually makes a price which is more competitive in smaller
quantities. For example:
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
| $USD Zurich | $13,615 | $13,620 | $13,630 ||| $13,655 | $13,665 | $13,670 |
| | 7kg | 2kg | 0.75kg ||| 0.75kg | 2kg | 7kg |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
You may be able to persuade it to sell you more than the advertised
0.75kg at that best price of $13,655. So if you want more than is
immediately available you could try just buying what's available at
the best price, and seeing what happens.
There's a good chance the bot will decide that the old price is still
valid, and come back offering more gold at the same price shortly
after.
Why is this? Why does the bot not just offer more in the first
place? Well, it's because the bots are programmed to realise that
they may not have the best information. There's a good chance that
you know something they don't. So after each sale the bot waits a
while, and then rechecks all its sources of gold prices.
If everything checks out it will probably post the same price again.
So the reason you get a better deal buying gradually in this way is
because it gives the bot the extra chance to check it's not
accidentally selling gold too cheap. BullionVault wants to be
incredibly good value, but not stupid!
Of course it's not a guaranteed strategy. If the price is on the move
the next price posted could be quite a bit higher, so you need to
choose your moment, but this is just one of a whole range of
strategies which you can use on BullionVault to improve the terms of
your trade.
If you'd like to know how to squeeze inside the price and buy even
cheaper why not go to BullionVault's help system and read about
beating the best buying price in the 'how to do it' section.
There's a link to the help system below.
11/28/09
A great New Bot for Bullion Vault
bullionvault.com is a superb way to invest in gold bullion without a lot of the headaches normally associated with investing in gold. The site is simple and straightforward and well laid out, and I was very impressed both by the presentation of the site and their business model.
Click here to claim a gram of FREE GOLD with the compliments of BullionVault 
This application communicates directly with bullionvault using their XML API, so it's safe and secure. It doesn't save passwords and it isn't adware, and you can't trade through it - it's just to let you monitor prices and your current valuation (for the moment), and refreshes its data every 10 seconds. It's completely free to use.
Version 1.0.2 now available! Fixes a problem with displaying bullion balances and improved display
You can download a zip file containing an installer from here: BullionMonitor.zip (415k). Just unzip the file and run Setup.exe
System Requirements
Windows XP (SP2 or later),
or Windows Vista,
or Windows Server (2003 SP1 or later)
.NET Framework 3.5 (the installer will ask you to install this if it isn't already installed)
500 MHz processor (Recommended: 800 MHz or faster)
256 MB of RAM (Recommended: 512 MB or more)
1024 x 768 screen resolution
If you already have a bullionvault account, then feel free to download the Bullion Vault bot called BullionMonitor - which was written by the guys at http://www.bullionbetting.com to let people view their bullion vault prices and their account balances in one convenient screen. Here's a screenshot:
This application communicates directly with bullionvault using their XML API, so it's safe and secure. It doesn't save passwords and it isn't adware, and you can't trade through it - it's just to let you monitor prices and your current valuation (for the moment), and refreshes its data every 10 seconds. It's completely free to use.
Version 1.0.2 now available! Fixes a problem with displaying bullion balances and improved display
You can download a zip file containing an installer from here: BullionMonitor.zip (415k). Just unzip the file and run Setup.exe
System Requirements
Windows XP (SP2 or later),
or Windows Vista,
or Windows Server (2003 SP1 or later)
.NET Framework 3.5 (the installer will ask you to install this if it isn't already installed)
500 MHz processor (Recommended: 800 MHz or faster)
256 MB of RAM (Recommended: 512 MB or more)
1024 x 768 screen resolution
NOTE : I have no affiliation with this software and cannot guarantee its safety.
If you have any questions, please visit http://www.bullionbetting.com/ or email the creator at feedback@bullionbetting.com
11/26/09
Gold Sets Third Record on Sri Lanka Purchase, Dollar’s Decline
Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold advanced to a record for the third time this week after Sri Lanka’s central bank purchased bullion and the dollar extended its decline, spurring investors to find an alternative.
Sri Lanka bought 10 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund for about $375 million, the bank said yesterday in Washington, following India, Russia and Mauritius in the rush for gold. The metal, which typically moves inversely to the dollar, touched $1,195.13 an ounce after the U.S. currency fell to a 15-month low against six major counterparts.
“A lot of central banks want to diversify out of U.S. dollar holdings and replace them with gold,” said Ben Westmore, an analyst with National Australia Bank. “What it means is you’ve got a lot of added demand in the gold market that not many people would have expected.” China is “quite a likely” buyer of the IMF’s gold in the coming weeks, he added.
Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,193.90 an ounce at 1:17 p.m. Singapore time, compared with yesterday’s close of $1,191.80. February-delivery gold rose 0.5 percent to $1,194.80 after climbing to a record $1,196.80 on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division. The Reuters Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities gained the most in more than a week yesterday.
Sri Lanka’s purchase, announced yesterday, followed a Financial Chronicle report that India, the world’s largest consumer, may add to a 200 ton purchase it made last month from the IMF. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao declined to comment.
‘Good Time’
The transaction is part of Sri Lanka’s plan to diversify its reserves and it has been “gradually” accumulating the metal in the last seven months, Central Bank Governor Nivard Cabraal said in an interview in Singapore today.
“Gold is a good anchor and hedge to have in these volatile circumstances,” the governor said. “We think it’s a good time to buy.”
Sri Lanka’s buying was the third sale this month of IMF bullion to a central bank, after India bought the 200 tons for $6.7 billion and Mauritius purchased 2 tons for $71.7 million. The three sales leave about 190 tons remaining from the 403.3 tons the IMF announced Sept. 18 it would divest to shore up its finances.
The central banks of Russia and Sri Lanka have acquired gold recently, prompting analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Societe Generale and Barclays Capital to forecast more purchases. Governments are the biggest bullion holders.
Diversify
“The market is now convinced that many of the developing economies central banks will keep buying bullion from the International Monetary Fund in order to diversify their reserves,” Darren Heathcote, an analyst with Investec Bank Ltd., wrote in a report yesterday. Gold has risen 35 percent this year, heading for the sharpest annual increase since 1979.
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, increased 5.49 tons to 1,127.86 metric tons as of Nov. 25, according to the company’s Web site.
The Dollar Index slid as much as 1.1 percent yesterday after Federal Reserve officials described this year’s drop in the currency as “orderly,” signaling it will tolerate a weaker greenback and fueling demand for higher-yielding assets. The index traded little changed at 74.339 today.
Data yesterday also showed U.S. consumer spending and sales of new homes climbed more than forecast while claims for jobless benefits dropped to the lowest level in a year.
“It’s a fever,” said Jonathan Barratt, an analyst with Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “The dollar index has broken through a massive support. That’s only going to add weight to the gold and commodity rally.”
The rally has pushed the 14-day relative strength index on cash gold above 70, a level viewed by investors and analysts who follow technical charts as a sign prices may fall.
Among other precious metals, platinum rose as much as 0.8 percent to $1,483.80 an ounce, the highest since Aug. 2008, before trading at $1,474.15. Palladium fell 0.3 percent to $372 an ounce and silver shed 0.5 percent to $18.76 an ounce.
Gold for June delivery gained to a fresh record of 263.86 yuan a gram and traded at 262.41 yuan a gram by 1:59 p.m. on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Sri Lanka bought 10 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund for about $375 million, the bank said yesterday in Washington, following India, Russia and Mauritius in the rush for gold. The metal, which typically moves inversely to the dollar, touched $1,195.13 an ounce after the U.S. currency fell to a 15-month low against six major counterparts.
“A lot of central banks want to diversify out of U.S. dollar holdings and replace them with gold,” said Ben Westmore, an analyst with National Australia Bank. “What it means is you’ve got a lot of added demand in the gold market that not many people would have expected.” China is “quite a likely” buyer of the IMF’s gold in the coming weeks, he added.
Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,193.90 an ounce at 1:17 p.m. Singapore time, compared with yesterday’s close of $1,191.80. February-delivery gold rose 0.5 percent to $1,194.80 after climbing to a record $1,196.80 on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division. The Reuters Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities gained the most in more than a week yesterday.
Sri Lanka’s purchase, announced yesterday, followed a Financial Chronicle report that India, the world’s largest consumer, may add to a 200 ton purchase it made last month from the IMF. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao declined to comment.
‘Good Time’
The transaction is part of Sri Lanka’s plan to diversify its reserves and it has been “gradually” accumulating the metal in the last seven months, Central Bank Governor Nivard Cabraal said in an interview in Singapore today.
“Gold is a good anchor and hedge to have in these volatile circumstances,” the governor said. “We think it’s a good time to buy.”
Sri Lanka’s buying was the third sale this month of IMF bullion to a central bank, after India bought the 200 tons for $6.7 billion and Mauritius purchased 2 tons for $71.7 million. The three sales leave about 190 tons remaining from the 403.3 tons the IMF announced Sept. 18 it would divest to shore up its finances.
The central banks of Russia and Sri Lanka have acquired gold recently, prompting analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Societe Generale and Barclays Capital to forecast more purchases. Governments are the biggest bullion holders.
Diversify
“The market is now convinced that many of the developing economies central banks will keep buying bullion from the International Monetary Fund in order to diversify their reserves,” Darren Heathcote, an analyst with Investec Bank Ltd., wrote in a report yesterday. Gold has risen 35 percent this year, heading for the sharpest annual increase since 1979.
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, increased 5.49 tons to 1,127.86 metric tons as of Nov. 25, according to the company’s Web site.
The Dollar Index slid as much as 1.1 percent yesterday after Federal Reserve officials described this year’s drop in the currency as “orderly,” signaling it will tolerate a weaker greenback and fueling demand for higher-yielding assets. The index traded little changed at 74.339 today.
Data yesterday also showed U.S. consumer spending and sales of new homes climbed more than forecast while claims for jobless benefits dropped to the lowest level in a year.
“It’s a fever,” said Jonathan Barratt, an analyst with Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “The dollar index has broken through a massive support. That’s only going to add weight to the gold and commodity rally.”
The rally has pushed the 14-day relative strength index on cash gold above 70, a level viewed by investors and analysts who follow technical charts as a sign prices may fall.
Among other precious metals, platinum rose as much as 0.8 percent to $1,483.80 an ounce, the highest since Aug. 2008, before trading at $1,474.15. Palladium fell 0.3 percent to $372 an ounce and silver shed 0.5 percent to $18.76 an ounce.
Gold for June delivery gained to a fresh record of 263.86 yuan a gram and traded at 262.41 yuan a gram by 1:59 p.m. on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
India May Buy more gold from IMF
http://tinyurl.com/BuyGoldNow
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Gold climbed to a record in London and New York on a further drop by the dollar and on a report that India may buy more bullion for its central-bank reserves.
Gold has rallied 11 percent since India said on Nov. 3 it bought 200 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund. The country, the worlds largest gold consumer, is open to additional purchases from the IMF, the Financial Chronicle newspaper reported. The U.S. Dollar Index fell for a third day, sliding to the lowest level in more than 15 months.
Central-bank buying has been one of the main factors of this recent rally, Peter Fertig, owner of Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd. in Hainburg, Germany, said today by phone. The weaker dollar is driving commodities higher.
Gold for immediate delivery added as much as $13.05, or 1.1 percent, to $1,182.45 an ounce and traded at $1,179.85 by 12:13 p.m. in London. Prices may advance to $1,200 next week, according to Fertig.
Bullion futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchanges Comex division climbed 1.2 percent to $1,181.10 an ounce. They earlier reached $1,183.90. Up for a ninth day, futures are set for the longest stretch of gains since August 1982.
Record Fixing
The metal rose to a record $1,176.50 an ounce in the morning fixing in London from $1,163.25 at yesterdays afternoon fixing. Some mining companies use fixings to sell production. Spot prices are up 34 percent this year.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao declined to comment on the report. A further purchase would make the countrys stockpile the worlds eighth-largest, overtaking the Netherlands and Russia, according to figures from the producer- funded World Gold Council.
Actions from central banks are very important at the moment, said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG. The purchase from India was like a seal of prices above $1,000 an ounce. Also, other central banks are buying gold.
The central banks of Russia and Sri Lanka have acquired gold, prompting analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Societe Generale and Barclays Capital to forecast more such purchases. Governments are the biggest bullion holders. Mauritius bought 2 tons of gold from the IMF last month for $71.7 million after Indias $6.7 billion purchase.
First Come, First Served
The IMF, which set out two months ago to dispose of one- eighth of its gold reserves, still has more than 200 tons to sell. It will do so on a first-come, first-served basis, Andrew Tweedie, head of the funds finance department, said in a Nov. 20 interview.
The additional stimulus for gold is the increased demand emerging from central banks, who are now keen to diversify away from the falling value of dollar reserves, said Mark Pervan, a commodity strategist with ANZ Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney.
Bullion typically moves inversely to the U.S. currency. The dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenbacks value, slid as much as 0.9 percent today after Federal Reserve officials refrained from voicing concern over this years 8.3 percent decline.
Assets held by the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, expanded for a second day yesterday to 1,122.37 tons, the most since June 29. The funds holdings reached a record 1,134 tons on June 1. Gold held in ETF Securities Ltd.s exchange-traded products fell 0.5 percent to 7.936 million ounces yesterday, its Web site showed.
Investment Demand
Speculators betting on higher prices have a very good argument on their side, Weinberg said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Its the weak dollar, the possibility of longer-term inflation, and also actions from central banks. Its definitely investment demand that is pushing prices higher.
Among other precious metals for immediate delivery in London, silver added 1 percent to $18.69 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.8 percent to $1,474.50 an ounce, while palladium climbed 1.4 percent to $374.50 an ounce.
ETF Securities silver holdings rose 0.7 percent to a record 22.861 million ounces yesterday, its Web site showed. Platinum assets added 164 ounces to a record 426,639 ounces, while palladium holdings climbed 1.4 percent to an all-time high of 624,859 ounces.
11/25/09
GOLD IS HIGHER than ever before both in Dollars and Sterling and is still climbing, writes Julian Phillips of the Gold Forecaster.
Many investors are waiting for a fall in the Gold Price, because they are looking at the past market shape, and that has not yet factored in the major sea-change in the shape of demand. Even many institutional analysts have not realized just what has happened to the gold market, and turn only to their charts to decipher the next moves.
Our subscribers, we hope, have realized from our writing and forecasts that a great deal more is still to come, however, in this gold market in the years to come. Essentially there has been a leap in its evolution, due to the IMF Gold Sales. The pending sale of 403.3 tonnes was previously seen as an overhang on the market, and one that pointed to the days when gold's price would peak. But the reverse has occurred.
Once the first portion of the 403.3 tonnes sale was announced, sentiment turned. Now we are waiting for further announcements on the third tranche of 201.3 tonnes. Please note that India indicated it would be an ongoing buyer of gold from the IMF. And Mauritius is happy with its 2 tonnes.
However, if the next buyer is another central bank – and not Russia or China, as many expect – the market will again be surprised and take the Gold Price even higher we believe. Chinese buying would have the same impact, with all eyes on the quantity it buys. This is because of the tide of central bank's changing attitude to gold expressed in the action of Buying Gold, has not yet been fully accepted by the market place and monetary analysts.
To do so would also herald as well as define dropping confidence in the US Dollar and other paper currencies. Monetary authorities will fight this all the way, even in the face of gold buying by central banks.
A look back in history to the time when the IMF first sold gold shows us that their motive was to support the Special Drawing Right – launched in the late 1960s to replace gold as the ultimate international reserve. But this attempt to build confidence in SDRs failed, and the IMF's motive this time is entirely different. They simply want to sell gold for as much as they can. It's not small amounts of gold either, as this is the first time since the US and the IMF sold gold in large amounts late last century (then some 500 tonnes at a time, and at auction) that the market has been able to buy gold in large tonnages. It may well be the last time too!
The sea-change attitude to gold has now been shown by these sales. It is fast-developing economies who want to hold and Buy Gold. This is not a temporary phenomenon; it is a change in attitude from what has dominated for the last 38 years, since Nixon closed the 'gold window' on selling the US Dollar for gold in 1971. One cannot underscore this new sentiment sufficiently. It will hold sway for at least a decade if not longer, but the clouds on the horizon make it difficult to see more than a couple of years ahead.
Look at the last five years changes in the global economic and political world. Unbelievably, the Western financial system saw a breakdown that startled and disappointed even its staunchest supporters. The system was saved by the skin of its teeth. Today, the banking system – standing as the arteries and veins of this system – seems disconnected from the needs of the world, riveted by its own greed. As the tentacles of the banking system followed the economic development in all countries, so the ripple effect of these crises spread globally into all countries except China and India. In China the government has a tight grip over every part of economic life and can effectively dominate the banking world. That's why China keeps growing so much. In India, a cash-driven Society, banks, like government are viewed with suspicion and find making headway extremely difficult.
With the currency system and foreign exchange markets based upon the banking system (banks remain the major players when it comes to exchange rates), the crises flowed into all nations to some extent. So far the root causes of these crises have not been attended to – so they stand a real chance of re-occurring.
The crises are now seen in the global economy as a US Dollar crisis. After so long a decline in the exchange rate of the US currency, the US monetary authorities are doing nothing about it, except to keep repeating that they favor a strong Dollar. This is now bordering on the ridiculous, as all can see that the US stands to gain so much from a falling currency.
Now extend this analysis and we are facing a growing situation where political tensions start to grow. President Obama went to China where he faced confident leaders. What did he get? He wanted China to let its currency rise (this won't happen). He wants friendly cooperation between the nations (he will get this only in so far as it suits them both). But very much to the point (regarding currencies), he then said that, "If we don't solve some of these problems, then I think both economically and politically it will put enormous strains on the relationship."
A look at the two very different national interests shows that there cannot be cooperation on currency issues. Political pressure therefore has to rise in the days ahead. Bear in mind that the battlefields are not on land but in the banking and currency worlds, where all economic exchanges happen. And here is where the influences on the Gold Price will be most keenly felt.
Already the US has seen a decimation of its manufacturing base, a feature that President Obama realizes. In recognizing this he has said, "It is particularly important for us, when it comes to Asia as a whole, to recognize that in the absence of a more robust export strategy it is going to be hard for us to rebuild our manufacturing base and employment base in this country."
Take this to a global view, where last year the G-20 expressed a desire to find global cooperation of monetary and economic issues and what do we now see? Central banks and government intentions are now subsiding finance and growth, and coordinated activity among member states is being replaced by more unilateral, nationalistic decision-making by individual countries. As gold is now a 'tacit' currency, gold is benefitting as the prospects for collective action on currencies is included.
As we have expressed before, the overriding objective of nearly all members now is to maintain some level of currency competitiveness – all of which makes a weaker US Dollar likely and benefits Gold Investment. With national interests becoming more selfish as the pressures grow, political tension between East and West must also grow. In this way we are moving towards 'extreme times', and this is when gold becomes money and its owners call the shots.
Central bank gold buying is telling us that.
Many investors are waiting for a fall in the Gold Price, because they are looking at the past market shape, and that has not yet factored in the major sea-change in the shape of demand. Even many institutional analysts have not realized just what has happened to the gold market, and turn only to their charts to decipher the next moves.
Our subscribers, we hope, have realized from our writing and forecasts that a great deal more is still to come, however, in this gold market in the years to come. Essentially there has been a leap in its evolution, due to the IMF Gold Sales. The pending sale of 403.3 tonnes was previously seen as an overhang on the market, and one that pointed to the days when gold's price would peak. But the reverse has occurred.
Once the first portion of the 403.3 tonnes sale was announced, sentiment turned. Now we are waiting for further announcements on the third tranche of 201.3 tonnes. Please note that India indicated it would be an ongoing buyer of gold from the IMF. And Mauritius is happy with its 2 tonnes.
However, if the next buyer is another central bank – and not Russia or China, as many expect – the market will again be surprised and take the Gold Price even higher we believe. Chinese buying would have the same impact, with all eyes on the quantity it buys. This is because of the tide of central bank's changing attitude to gold expressed in the action of Buying Gold, has not yet been fully accepted by the market place and monetary analysts.
To do so would also herald as well as define dropping confidence in the US Dollar and other paper currencies. Monetary authorities will fight this all the way, even in the face of gold buying by central banks.
A look back in history to the time when the IMF first sold gold shows us that their motive was to support the Special Drawing Right – launched in the late 1960s to replace gold as the ultimate international reserve. But this attempt to build confidence in SDRs failed, and the IMF's motive this time is entirely different. They simply want to sell gold for as much as they can. It's not small amounts of gold either, as this is the first time since the US and the IMF sold gold in large amounts late last century (then some 500 tonnes at a time, and at auction) that the market has been able to buy gold in large tonnages. It may well be the last time too!
The sea-change attitude to gold has now been shown by these sales. It is fast-developing economies who want to hold and Buy Gold. This is not a temporary phenomenon; it is a change in attitude from what has dominated for the last 38 years, since Nixon closed the 'gold window' on selling the US Dollar for gold in 1971. One cannot underscore this new sentiment sufficiently. It will hold sway for at least a decade if not longer, but the clouds on the horizon make it difficult to see more than a couple of years ahead.
Look at the last five years changes in the global economic and political world. Unbelievably, the Western financial system saw a breakdown that startled and disappointed even its staunchest supporters. The system was saved by the skin of its teeth. Today, the banking system – standing as the arteries and veins of this system – seems disconnected from the needs of the world, riveted by its own greed. As the tentacles of the banking system followed the economic development in all countries, so the ripple effect of these crises spread globally into all countries except China and India. In China the government has a tight grip over every part of economic life and can effectively dominate the banking world. That's why China keeps growing so much. In India, a cash-driven Society, banks, like government are viewed with suspicion and find making headway extremely difficult.
With the currency system and foreign exchange markets based upon the banking system (banks remain the major players when it comes to exchange rates), the crises flowed into all nations to some extent. So far the root causes of these crises have not been attended to – so they stand a real chance of re-occurring.
The crises are now seen in the global economy as a US Dollar crisis. After so long a decline in the exchange rate of the US currency, the US monetary authorities are doing nothing about it, except to keep repeating that they favor a strong Dollar. This is now bordering on the ridiculous, as all can see that the US stands to gain so much from a falling currency.
Now extend this analysis and we are facing a growing situation where political tensions start to grow. President Obama went to China where he faced confident leaders. What did he get? He wanted China to let its currency rise (this won't happen). He wants friendly cooperation between the nations (he will get this only in so far as it suits them both). But very much to the point (regarding currencies), he then said that, "If we don't solve some of these problems, then I think both economically and politically it will put enormous strains on the relationship."
A look at the two very different national interests shows that there cannot be cooperation on currency issues. Political pressure therefore has to rise in the days ahead. Bear in mind that the battlefields are not on land but in the banking and currency worlds, where all economic exchanges happen. And here is where the influences on the Gold Price will be most keenly felt.
Already the US has seen a decimation of its manufacturing base, a feature that President Obama realizes. In recognizing this he has said, "It is particularly important for us, when it comes to Asia as a whole, to recognize that in the absence of a more robust export strategy it is going to be hard for us to rebuild our manufacturing base and employment base in this country."
Take this to a global view, where last year the G-20 expressed a desire to find global cooperation of monetary and economic issues and what do we now see? Central banks and government intentions are now subsiding finance and growth, and coordinated activity among member states is being replaced by more unilateral, nationalistic decision-making by individual countries. As gold is now a 'tacit' currency, gold is benefitting as the prospects for collective action on currencies is included.
As we have expressed before, the overriding objective of nearly all members now is to maintain some level of currency competitiveness – all of which makes a weaker US Dollar likely and benefits Gold Investment. With national interests becoming more selfish as the pressures grow, political tension between East and West must also grow. In this way we are moving towards 'extreme times', and this is when gold becomes money and its owners call the shots.
Central bank gold buying is telling us that.
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